🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.