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Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive British prime minister to occupy the role over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its sixth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for many years – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three warring blocs – left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the next day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office confirmed the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, like his predecessors, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that transformation will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”